I'm sure we have all been shared a meme on social media that pokes fun at the 'Bipolar' nature of weather in our local areas. Look... As someone who has lived in Northern Illinois the first 26 years of my life, I can personally attest to the rollercoaster ride that mother nature takes me on each year (if you are a Midwesterner yourself, I'm sure you would concur with my statement). This upcoming week will certainly embody this sentiment as a mixture of both summer and winter enter into the Central U.S over the next several days. Brenden McGlinn from Prestige Weather gives his weekly forecast for the Midwest region:
10/22/2023 Some cloud cover was present this afternoon across the Lower Great Lakes (i.e., the southern tip of Lake Michigan) as backed northwesterly winds advect colder air over Lake Michigan and Erie this afternoon. Unlike what we saw last week, this cloud deck is not resulting in precipitation once it makes its way onto shore (12z sounding out of southwestern Ohio shows a very dry moisture profile from the surface to aloft). The aforementioned cold air advection (post frontal) and lack of a moisture profile/ lifting source will preclude any significant precipitation chances for the Lower Great Lakes/ Mid-Ohio Valley this afternoon into the evening. For our localities just west of the Great Lakes... What a contrast in conditions to that of Yesterday! Beautiful clear and sunny conditions were observed this afternoon as temperature spread ranges between the mid to high 40's and low 50's (with highs forecasted to be in the mid 50's for Southern Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa/Missouri just to name a few). While yesterday saw chilly conditions and gusty northwesterly winds (due to a passing by shortwave trough) today's winds are much calmer as an upper-level ridge begins to progress into the Central U.S. This progressive pattern that has been referenced greatly over the last several days is expected to set the scene for a rather interesting weather week ahead. With the emergence of this ridge, temperatures are expected to be well into the high 60's and low 70's as far north as Minneapolis as warm air/moisture advection makes a late season return to the region. To put things into perspective, forecasted temperatures (if observations verify the trend) could see well above average to nearly record highs for much of the Midwest (on the order of 20+ degrees... well over two standard deviations above the mean!) Model guidance has a fairly good confidence on temperature spread and overall synoptic setup going into the start of this week. There are likely to also be some precipitation chances beginning late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a shortwave trough begins to dig over New Mexico and formulate an appreciable upper-level divergence field to help promote surface level convergence (along with higher-than-normal precipitable water values for this time of year and a likely convergent boundary placement for lift). More widespread precipitation chances for the region arrives beginning on Thursday at the shortwave trough begins to take on a "negative tilt" and move northeast into the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes Region. This will also bring a chance at severe weather later on in the week. Model guidance is variable on the exact placement of the greatest severe weather threat. Much of this should hopefully be resolved once we begin to receive guidance from our CAMS (convective allowing models) at the beginning of this week. Folks living in this region will need to pay close attention to the forecast trends as this week is set to feature periods of heavy rainfall, severe weather, and possible freezing low temps by the end of this week! Map Courtesy of WeatherBell
**This forecast is from the Midwest Weekly Discussion posted to our Prestige Weather Subscribers on 10/22/2023. These weekly discussions posted for all regions of the U.S are available (along with other amazing perks/benefits) starting at only $4.99 a month! If you are interested in signing up for our subscription-based consulting service, please feel free to visit our purchase page: Standard – Prestige Weather